The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't - Nate Silver A very good read. The moral of the story is that we know less than we think we do, and our predictions (typically) are far less reliable than we think they are. He talks a lot about Baye's Theorem, which encourages a constant updating of how one perceives the world and the likelihood of certain events. He encourages the reader to think probabilistically, and to constantly test one's assumptions. I think this is great advice, not only for scientific or engineering related purposes, but also personal beliefs about the world. Never get over confident that you know how the world works, be open to change, and don't be afraid to find out that you are wrong, since it will (hopefully) eventually lead you in the right direction.

I'm not sure this book was exactly what I expected it to be, but it left me with much to think about, which is all I can ask for.